All-new metrics arriving in Oval Advantage on week commencing 17/08/26.
What is ‘Cohesion’?
Cohesion is a measure of a team’s depth and experience playing alongside one another. This is measured as the average number of times teammates have played together.
What is ‘Continuity’?
Continuity is a ‘rotation metric’, measuring the percentage of a team that has played all of the last 5- to 10- matches. High continuity nurtures high cohesion over time.
Why does ‘Cohesion’ matter?
Cohesion is heavily correlated with success at the elite level of the game. Below is a graph showing the win rate of topflight clubs against their cohesion, both measured over the last four seasons.
Of the top 15 most cohesive sides in that period, 14 had a win rate of over 50%; 13 made finals; 8 won trophies.
Cohesion can also be measured for specific units within a team. Looking at unit cohesion can reveal the structure of a team, and it is clear that elite teams invest in positional combinations.
Ireland: Ireland’s back row is the most cohesive at Test level, having played an average of 71 matches together in all competitions. This level of synergy allows them to execute Ireland’s intricate phase play and co-ordinate at defensive breakdowns.
New Zealand: the All Blacks’ 10/12 have played an average of 71 matches together, ensuring that they have playmakers who can effectively get the ball to width.
France: France’s halfbacks have the highest cohesion in the world (56 mutual appearances on average). This ensures that the rest of the team is highly organised around this key unit.
Why does ‘Continuity’ matter?
Continuity reflects how often a team is rotating selection, and hence how quickly they are building cohesion. This often reveals where a team is in their cycle relative to opportunities for silverware.
In the Gallagher Prem last season, Exeter Chiefs, Saracens, and Bristol Bears were in a tight contest for the playoffs.
Between February and April, each team prioritised consistency in selection. Bears’ run was sabotaged by injuries, which jeopardised their key combinations.
Exeter managed their new-look squad most effectively throughout the season. By prioritising continuity in the last third of the season, they arrived at their most significant fixtures with the highest cohesion.
At Test level, the best example of teams managing squad rotation cycles is the Springboks. Their strategy demonstrates that successful teams develop in predictable cycles.
In the last two World Cup cycles, South Africa have had significant ‘build-and-peak’ cycles. The graph on the left shows their continuity over that period.
Such is the effectiveness of their approach, from the quarter-finals of the 2023 World Cup until the final, South Africa fielded the most cohesive Springbok teams ever, breaking their record week-on-week to peak in the final.